At the EU-Japan summit in Brussels in July, closer cooperation in security policy was discussed, because the Ukraine war has also led to a change in security strategy in Japan, the world’s third largest economic power. The Japanese Ambassador to Germany, H.E. Hidenao Yanagi, spoke with the head of the foreign policy department of the daily newspaper “Die Welt” about the threats Japan is facing and how his country is dealing with its long-standing economic dependency on China.
Klaus Geiger: Mr Ambassador, the history of Germany and Japan has shown great parallels since the beginning of the 20th century. Both states were aggressors and losers in the Second World War, transformed into liberal democracies under the protection of the USA – and today are economic giants and military dwarfs. The shock of the Ukraine invasion is now leading to a rethinking of the military in both countries, to a turning point in time...
H.E. Hidenao Yanagi: We don’t use the word turning point. Because we have been facing threats and challenges in East Asia for more than ten years. North Korea is pursuing its nuclear and missile programmes and China is repeatedly invading our territorial waters. But yes, the attack on Ukraine has also led us to renew our national security strategy. We want to increase our budget for defence to two percent of our gross domestic product by 2027.
Klaus Geiger: At the moment it is only about one per cent. You say you have seen the dangers for ten years. Did you reduce your economic dependencies on autocracies earlier than Germany? For a long time, the German government negated all dangers in its policy on Russia for economic and supposedly historical reasons.
H.E. Hidenao Yanagi: For us, dependency on China is the central issue. For rare earths, it was 90 per cent a decade ago. Back in 2012, tensions over the Senkaku Islands, which are our territory, led to large demonstrations in China against Japanese department stores and factories. Since then, we have been pursuing the “China-plus-one” policy. Every Japanese company is supposed to invest in one more country besides China. Usually, these are countries like Thailand, Vietnam, India or Indonesia.
Klaus Geiger: “De-risking” is also the buzzword in Germany with regard to China since the Ukraine invasion. Is there any interest in the Japanese experience and the “China-plus-one” strategy on the part of the German government?
H.E. Hidenao Yanagi: Yes, absolutely. Germany’s dependency on China for rare earths is about as high as ours was ten years ago. At the same time, China now regulates exports. Because these elements are needed to build electric cars, German companies are very interested in looking for alternatives, just like Japan.
Klaus Geiger: Until the Ukraine invasion, Japanese government representatives were not happy behind closed doors that Germany looked very strongly at China and relatively little at Japan. Has that changed in the past year?
H.E. Hidenao Yanagi: I don’t want to say that we were unhappy before. But we very much welcome the fact that the traffic light coalition already agreed in the coalition agreement to strengthen the cooperation with Japan and the other democratic countries in the Indo-Pacific. Since the attack on Ukraine, relations have then become very close. Chancellor Olaf Scholz chose Japan as his first destination in the Far East in April 2022. In total, the Chancellor visited Japan three times in 13 months. There were the first government consultations between our countries in March. The exchange has never been so intensive.
Klaus Geiger: Germany is under the shock of the Ukraine war. In Asia, on the other hand, we often hear that it is a regional conflict. That the front of the new Cold War runs through the Taiwan Strait. Do you agree?
H.E. Hidenao Yanagi: On the 21st of March, our Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visited Ukraine. On the same day, President Xi Jinping paid a visit to Moscow. Both visits show not only who is on which side in the conflict, but also that security in Europe and in the Indo-Pacific are inextricably linked. Russia’s invasion is not just a regional problem for Europe. The attack on the free, open international order is a global problem.
Klaus Geiger: Is this already sufficiently recognized in Germany?
H.E. Hidenao Yanagi: Yes, I think so. The Federal Chancellor understands this. Most recently, he explicitly mentioned the East China Sea in his government statement on June 22nd and made it very clear that he is keeping an eye on the situation in East Asia.
Klaus Geiger: Wouldn’t Europe and the democracies in the Indo-Pacific then also have to cooperate more in defence?
H.E. Hidenao Yanagi: We are at the beginning here, but Germany is deepening its engagement in the Indo-Pacific. Two years ago, the frigate “Bayern” docked in Japan. Last year, German fighter planes visited us for the first time. Defence Minister Boris Pistorius was the first German head of department to visit Japan in 16 years. The Japanese Air Defence Forces were the only non-NATO country to take part in the NATO Air Defender Manoeuvre. At the NATO summit in Vilnius, the AP4 countries took part, i.e. Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan. But we need time for concrete results.
Klaus Geiger: The three pillars of freedom and democracy worldwide are East Asia, Europe and North America. The USA is the protecting power. What if Donald Trump wins the next election and the USA retreats into isolation?
H.E. Hidenao Yanagi: The late Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had relatively good relations with Donald Trump. We will have to see how it is going to be under our current prime minister. We are not that pessimistic.
Klaus Geiger: The security of Japan and Europe depends on the quality of the male friendships between Donald Trump and the heads of government?
H.E. Hidenao Yanagi: Of course, Prime Minister Abe has played a big role. But regardless of personal connections: the Americans have a big strategic interest. The Indo-Pacific and China are central to their foreign policy.
Klaus Geiger: And there is no alternative to the USA as an ally.
H.E. Hidenao Yanagi: No. Of course, the US is the only military power that can provide this protection for Asia and Europe. The Russian attack on Ukraine clearly showed that.
Klaus Geiger: Are the Japanese and German people sufficiently aware of this?
H.E. Hidenao Yanagi: In Japan yes, in Germany I don’t know exactly because we have seen somewhat difficult relations during the Trump era.
Klaus Geiger: You perceive more Anti-Americanism in Germany than in Japan?
H.E. Hidenao Yanagi: Let’s put it this way: the dependency consciousness is less pronounced in Germany. In Japan, as direct neighbours of North Korea, China and Russia, we see the alliance with the USA as having no alternative.
Interview Klaus Geiger, „Die Welt“
The interview is an abridged version of the conversation that appeared in the daily newspaper "Die Welt" on July 13th 2023. We would like to thank Axel Springer SE for their kind permission to reprint the interview.